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Variations in Desired Family Size and Excess Fertility in East Africa

机译:东非所需家庭规模和过度生育的变化

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This contribution studies the variation in desired family size and excess fertility in four East African countries by analyzing the combined impact of wealth, education, religious affiliation, and place of residence. The findings show an enormous heterogeneity in Kenya. Wealthy and higher educated people have fertility desires close to replacement level, regardless of religion, while poor, uneducated people, particularly those in Muslim communities, have virtually uncontrolled fertility. Rwanda is at the other extreme: poor, uneducated people have the same desired fertility as their wealthy, educated compatriots, regardless of their religion—a case of “poverty Malthusianism.”. The potential for family planning is high in both countries as more than 50% of the women having 5 children or more would have preferred to stop at 4 or less. Tanzania and Uganda have an intermediate position in desired family size and a lower potential for family planning. Generally, the main factor that sustains higher fertility is poverty exacerbated by religious norms among the poor only.
机译:通过分析财富,教育,宗教信仰和居住地的综合影响,这项贡献研究了四个东非国家所需家庭规模和过度生育的变化。研究结果表明肯尼亚存在巨大的异质性。富裕和受过高等教育的人,不管宗教信仰如何,其生育欲望都接近替代水平,而贫穷,未受过教育的人,尤其是穆斯林社区的人,其生育能力实际上不受控制。卢旺达则处于另一极端:无论其宗教信仰如何,贫穷,未受过教育的人们与富有,受过教育的同胞一样,拥有同样的理想生育力-这就是“贫穷的马尔萨斯主义”。在这两个国家中,计划生育的可能性很高,因为育有5个或更多子女的妇女中有50%希望停在4个或更少。坦桑尼亚和乌干达在所需的家庭规模方面处于中间位置,而计划生育的潜力较低。一般而言,维持较高生育率的主要因素是仅贫困人口中的宗教规范加剧了贫困。

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