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Increasing Longevity and the New Demography of Death

机译:长寿与死亡的新人口

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The world is ageing at both an individual and population levels and population ageing is truly a global phenomenon, the only notable region of exception being sub-Saharan Africa, which remains relatively young in demographic terms. At an individual level, life expectancies at birth have increased at the global level from 47 years in the mid-20th century to around 70 years today and are expected to rise to 76 years by the mid-21st century. At the population level, the proportion of the world’s population aged 60 years and over has increased from 8 percent in the mid-20th century to 12 percent, and by 2050, it is expected to reach 21 percent. In Europe, ageing has continued at a slower rate, but with the emergence of increasing numbers of centenarians. This paper outlines the transition using data from England and Wales from a demography of young death in the mid-19th century to a demography of survival in the 20th century and on to the new demography of old death in the 21st century. The paper provides evidence that it is likely that ages at death will continue to increase, with more and more people reaching extreme old age. At the same time, it is likely that life expectancies at birth will continue to rise, taking life expectancy at birth in England and Wales to 100 years or more by the end of the 21st century. The new 21st century demography of death will lead to annual numbers of deaths far in excess of previous maxima.
机译:世界在个人和人口两方面都在老龄化,人口老龄化确实是一种全球现象,唯一值得注意的例外地区是撒哈拉以南非洲,该地区的人口统计还相对年轻。从个人的角度来看,全球出生时的预期寿命已从20世纪中叶的47岁增加到今天的70岁左右,预计到21世纪中叶将增长到76岁。在人口水平上,全球60岁及以上人口的比例已从20世纪中叶的8%增加到12%,到2050年,这一比例预计将达到21%。在欧洲,老龄化的速度一直较慢,但随着百岁老人数量的增加。本文概述了从英格兰和威尔士获得的数据,从19世纪中叶的年轻人死亡人口统计数据到20世纪生存人口统计数据,再到21世纪旧死亡人口统计数据的过渡。本文提供的证据表明,随着越来越多的人达到极高的年龄,死亡年龄可能会继续增加。同时,出生时的预期寿命可能会继续增加,到21世纪末,英格兰和威尔士的出生时预期寿命将达到100岁或更长。 21世纪新的死亡人口统计资料将导致每年的死亡人数远远超过以前的最大值。

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