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Changes in Fertility Decline in Rwanda: A Decomposition Analysis

机译:卢旺达生育率下降的变化:分解分析

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After having stalled in the 1990s, fertility in Rwanda resumed its downward trajectory between 2005 and 2010. The total fertility rate declined from 6.1 to 4.6 and modern contraceptive use increased. However, it is unclear which determinants lay behind the previous stall and the recent strong drop in fertility. This paper contributes to an ongoing debate on the impact of social upheavals on fertility decline. We use a decomposition analysis, focusing on the change in characteristics and reproductive behaviour of women and their contributions to levels of fertility during 1992–2000 and 2000–2010. Results show that due to widowhood and separation the proportion of women who were married decreased between 1992 and 2000, but their fertility increased in the same period due to replacement fertility and an unmet need for family planning. After 2000, postponement of marriage and lower infant mortality contributed to lower fertility, but the most important effect is the overall lower fertility due not only to improved family planning provision but perhaps also to the sensitizing campaigns of the Rwandan government.
机译:在1990年代停滞之后,卢旺达的生育率在2005年至2010年间恢复了下降的趋势。总生育率从6.1下降至4.6,现代避孕药具的使用有所增加。但是,目前尚不清楚哪些决定因素是前一个失速和近期生育率大幅下降的原因。本文有助于就社会动荡对生育率下降的影响进行持续的辩论。我们使用分解分析法,重点研究了1992–2000年和2000–2010年期间女性特征和生殖行为的变化及其对生育水平的贡献。结果表明,由于丧偶和分居,1992年至2000年间,已婚妇女的比例下降,但由于生育率的提高和计划生育的需求未满足,她们的生育率在同一时期有所提高。 2000年后,推迟结婚和降低婴儿死亡率导致生育率降低,但最重要的影响是总体生育率降低,这不仅是由于计划生育服务的改善,而且可能是卢旺达政府开展了宣传运动。

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