A Cross-Countries Research on the Duration of Export Trade Relationships in Manufacturing Industry

摘要

China has accomplished itself as a great power in world manufacturing industry. However, China still has a long way to go compared with other advanced countries; and China do style="font-family:Verdana;">es style="font-family:Verdana;"> not have advantages in labor costs compared with some developing countries such as India and Vietnam. Therefore, the export trade of China, especially the export of manufacturing industry, is in face of an unprecedented crisis. And whether can we ensure the sustainability of export trade in manufacturing industry becomes particularly important. This paper, based on Survival Analysis, makes a study of the duration of export trade relationships of the top ten countries represented by China, America, and Germany in manufacturing sub-sectors from 1995 to 2015. We found that China can maintain a long time trade relationship in export trade of manufacturing. And we can know from the cross-countries comparison of median survival time and survival rate of manufacturing sub-sectors that China’s export trade in manufacturing performs differently in different sub-sectors. And we should ensure the sustainability of export trade in manufacturing while simultaneously extend different treatment to different manufacturing sub-sectors.