The Prognosticating Aspects of the DevelopedCosmic Geophysics Concerning theSubsequent Forthcoming Intensifications of theGlobal Seismicity, Volcanic and ClimaticActivity of the Earth in the 21st Century

摘要

The article presents the fundamentals of the thermohydrogravidynamic theory of the global seismotectonic, volcanic and climatic activity of the Earth based on the author’s generalized differential formulation of the first law of thermodynamics extending the classical Gibbs’ formulation by taking into account the infinitesimal increment of the macroscopic kinetic energy dKτ , the infinitesimal increment of the gravitational potential energy dπτ , the generalized expression for the infinitesimal work δAnp,?τ done by the non-potential terrestrial stress forces acting on the boundary of the continuum region τ, the infinitesimal increment dG of energy due to the cosmic and terrestrial non-stationary energy gravitational influence on the continuum region τ. Based on the established fundamental global seismotectonic, volcanic and climatic periodicities Ttec,vol,clim,f = (702±6) years and Ttec,vol,clim,f = (3510±30) years (determined by the combined predominant non-stationary energy gravitational influence on the Earth of the system Sun-Moon, the Venus, the Mars, the Jupiter and the Sun owing to the gravitational interactions of the Sun with the Jupiter and the Saturn), the author explains the cosmic energy gravitational genesis of the previous global seismotectonic, volcanic and climatic activity of the Earth from the planetary disaster near the evaluated dates (10584±36) BC to the subsequent intensifications of the global seismicity and volcanic activity in the end of the 19th century and in the beginning of the 20th century, in the end of the 20th century, and in the beginning of the 21st century AD. Combining all established links and the established new fundamental global seismotectonic, volcanic and climatic time periodicities Ttec,vol,clim,cf =(1581±189) years, Ttec,vol,clim,sf = (6321±3) years, the author presents the mathematical evidence of the validity of the subsequent subranges: (2023±3) AD, (2040.38±3) AD and (2059.5±4.5) AD of the increased intensifications of the global seismotectonic, volcanic and climatic activity of the Earth during the 21st century AD (since 2016 AD). Based on the generalized differential formulation of the first law of thermodynamics, author presents the foundation of the useful technological basis for the practical prognostication of the regional seismotectonic activity of the Earth by using the combination of the generalized decompositions for evaluation of the date t(jp+1) of the next forthcoming strong earthquake (near the considered region P by taking into account the initial date t0(P) of the previous strong earthquake and the next dates t(K)(k = 1, 2, …, jp) of the realized strong earthquakes) and by using the established local energy prediction thermohydrogravidynamic principles (determining the maximal and minimal local gravity accelerations, which are preferable for realization of strong earthquakes). Two thermohydrogravidynamic principles (determining the maximal temporal intensification of the established thermohygrogravidynamic processes in the internal rigid core of the Earth and in the boundary region between the internal rigid core and the fluid core of the Earth under the combined cosmic integral energy gravitational influence of the planets of the Solar System, the Moon and the Sun) are founded for determination of the corresponding maximal temporal intensifications of the global and regional seismotectonic, volcanic and climatic processes of the Earth. The author presents the mathematical evidence that one of these thermohydrogravidynamic principles gives the additional confirmation of the mean date 2059.5 AD of the obtained range (2059.5±4.5) AD of the increased intensification of the global seismotectonic, volcanic and climatic activity of the Earth.