Background The European Union has made it a strategic objective to develop its biofuels market in order to minimize greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, to help mitigate climate change and to address energy insecurity within the transport sector. Despite targets set at national and supranational levels, lignocellulosic bioethanol production has yet to be widely commercialized in the European Union. Here, we use techno-economic modeling to compare the price of bioethanol produced from short rotation coppice (SRC) poplar feedstocks under two leading processing technologies in five European countries. Results Our evaluation shows that the type of processing technology and varying national costs between countries results in a wide range of bioethanol production prices (€0.275 to 0.727/l). The lowest production prices for bioethanol were found in countries that had cheap feedstock costs and high prices for renewable electricity. Taxes and other costs had a significant influence on fuel prices at the petrol station, and therefore the presence and amount of government support for bioethanol was a major factor determining the competitiveness of bioethanol with conventional fuel. In a forward-looking scenario, genetically engineering poplar with a reduced lignin content showed potential to enhance the competitiveness of bioethanol with conventional fuel by reducing overall costs by approximately 41% in four out of the five countries modeled. However, the possible wider phenotypic traits of advanced poplars needs to be fully investigated to ensure that these do not unintentionally negate the cost savings indicated. Conclusions Through these evaluations, we highlight the key bottlenecks within the bioethanol supply chain from the standpoint of various stakeholders. For producers, technologies that are best suited to the specific feedstock composition and national policies should be optimized. For policymakers, support schemes that benefit emerging bioethanol producers and allow renewable fuel to be economically competitive with petrol should be established. Finally, for researchers, better control over plant genetic engineering and advanced breeding and its consequential economic impact would bring valuable contributions towards developing an economically sustainable bioethanol market within the European Union.
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