Application of ARIMAX model in predication of basin water resources under climate change

摘要

Currently, climate change is regarded as one of the most important global environmental problems at home and abroad, and its impacts on hydrology and water resources mainly concentrated on the process response to hydrological cycle and the change of water volume. Taking Tarim River Basin, which is the largest continental river in China, as a typical example, this paper identifies the main factors driving the evolution of its water resources system based on the scientific cognition of basin water resources system features, obtains key meteorological factors data as the input of basin water resources system changes by adopting some existing climate scenarios and climate models, analyses and calculates its water resources volume in future different level years under the three kinds of climate scenarios: RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 by constructing the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMAX) dynamic regression forecasting model of the meteorological factors (such as temperature and precipitation) and runoff. The calculation results can clearly reflect the overall situation of basin water resources under different climate scenarios and provide basis for development, utilization and optimal allocation of basin water resources.