Earned Sovereignty: The Future of Sovereignty-Based Conflict Resolution

摘要

In the coming decades, the world is likely to see continuing conflict arising from the inherent tension between self-determination and territorial integrity. In the 1950's and 1960's, the world grappled with a wave of new states emerging from decolonization. In the 1990s and 2000's, the world witnessed the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia, and the Sudan, as well as the separation of Eritrea from Ethiopia and East Timor from Indonesia. In the 1990's, almost half of all peace agreements failed within five years. In the 21st century, 90 percent of civil wars occurred in countries that had already endured civil war within the last 30 years. As we look toward the horizon, it is safe to say that deep-seated tension will continue to exist between groups seeking to exercise their right to internal or external self-determination, and states looking to preserve their territorial integrity. While some of these conflicts may play out peacefully, we know from experience that the clash between self-determination and territorial integrity leads in most cases to violence met by violence.