Nuclear Proliferation and International Systems

摘要

RIST and RDTs offer some important insights about international politics, and they have a justifiable center of gravity based on recognition of the importance of military history and strategy. But theorists and policy-makers need to be careful in borrowing from RIST and RDTs. RIST offers explanatory and predictive hypotheses that fit some worlds better than others, A world of many nuclear-armed states has the potential to drive RIST theorists, not to say deterrence models, into the wood chippers of history. Two variables will help to determine whether RIST and RDT will remain compelling in a world of nuclear plenty: first, whether the distribution of power among nuclear armed actors is relatively balanced or unbalanced; and, then, whether the aims of nuclear states are status quo or revisionist in their attitude toward the existing distribution of international power and other values. RIST and RDT have a lot to say about the first set of variables but understate the importance of the second set. The relative military potential of state actors matters a great deal for the future of deterrence; so, too, do the aspirations and motivations of the future nuclear heads of state. History shows that systems matter, like parents do, but their rules are not always followed by intrepid adolescents with an impatient grasp for power and glory.