Probing Conflict Contagion and Casualties in Mindanao,Philippines

摘要

Subnational and local hostilities are regarded as a distinguishing feature of Asian conflicts. Like the violent conflicts in Indonesia, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, those in Mindanao, Philippines are noted for their persistence and enormous welfare and economic costs. Extending recent empirical studies on Asian conflicts, here we examine the importance of spatial contagion as a factor behind the local incidence of conflicts and the associated casualties in the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao. Estimating negative binomial regression models on a panel of cities and municipalities for period 2011-2016, we find strong evidence of contagion: both the frequency of violent hostilities and their related casualties in a locality are affected by past conflicts, especially those related to crime, in its contiguous neighbors. No such effect is found in the placebo tests involving random neighbors in the same province, thus ruling out that the estimated contagion effects is just a correlated reaction to a common environment.