The Auditor's Going-Concern Disclosure as a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy: A Discrete-Time Survival Analysis

摘要

The question of how an auditor's going-concern disclosure affects a client's future oper- ations has long troubled the auditing profession. In an attempt to provide further under- standing of this issue, we introduce Discrete-Time Survival Analysis (DTSA) to examine the aftermath of 231 first-time going-concern disclosures on clients' subse- quent continuance. DTSA represents a significant refinement over traditional ordinary least squares (OLS) and logistic (LOGIT)regression in that it provides not only a prob- ability estimate, but also an estimate of the timing of the event occurrence.