Cognitive Limitations and Investment “Myopia”

摘要

Optimization of investment decisions in an uncertain and dynamically evolving environment is difficult due to the limitations of the decision-maker's cognitive capacity. Thus, actual investment decisions may deviate from the dynamically optimal decision rule. This paper investigates how a potential investment rule bias affects the expected payoff from a project that has an uncertain development time and an uncertain completion cost. The result shows that the presence of a potential bias in the adopted decision rule dissipates project value and that the dissipating effect is greater for a longer term project if the completion cost is an increasing function of the time to completion.