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The Deepening Global Financial Crisis: From Minsky to Marx and Beyond

机译:全球金融危机的不断深化:从明斯基到马克思,甚至超越

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This article analyses the financial crisis in the US, investigating both empirically and theoretically its origins, recent evolution, and potential future impact on the real economy in the US and abroad. Part I undertakes an empirical analysis of the present crisis, from its apparent origins in the subprime mortgage market in the US, to its spread to other US and global capital markets and its transmission to the real economy in 2008 and beyond. The analysis further explores the deeper origins and evolution of the current crisis, from the 1998 bail-out of the Long Term Capital Management hedge fund, through the 'dotcom' bust of 2000, recession of 2001, to the subprime mortgage crisis and subsequent events through year-end 2007. The analysis considers briefly how the current financial crisis is similar and different from prior financial crises in the US since the 1970s. It concludes the current crisis is fundamentally a solvency crisis and thus substantially different from prior financial crises, that it has just begun to fully unfold, and that it will inevitably deteriorate further in 2008 and beyond, resulting in a major recession in the US and greatly increasing the odds of a synchronized real downturn in the major world economies in 2009 and beyond. Parts II and II of the article shift from descriptive-empirical analysis to an exploration of the financial crisis from a theoretical perspective. In Part II, an assessment of the current financial crisis begins with an initial consideration of post-Keynesian economist, Hyman Minsky, and in particular Minsky's key notion of his 'financial instability hypothesis'. Part II explores the limits of Minsky's hypothesis and suggests how it might be developed and extended further in light of the current financial crisis. In Part III, the article begins a second theoretical exploration by considering Marx's categories of the organic composition of capital and the falling rate of profit in light of some of Marx's prescient, but undeveloped, thoughts on the role of money and finance from Vols. II and III of Capital. Suggestions are offered on how Marxist categories might be expanded to better reflect new commodity money forms of capital in the 21st century capitalist economy, as well as possibly account for disproportionalities in relative rates of profit between financial and real sectors of capitalist economy today.
机译:本文分析了美国的金融危机,从经验和理论上调查了它的起源,最近的演变以及对美国和国外实体经济的潜在未来影响。第一部分对当前危机进行了实证分析,从其在美国次级抵押贷款市场中的明显起源,到其蔓延到其他美国和全球资本市场,以及其在2008年及以后向实体经济的传播。该分析进一步探讨了当前危机的更深层次渊源和演变,从1998年对长期资本管理对冲基金的纾困到2000年的“互联网泡沫破灭”,2001年的衰退,次级抵押贷款危机及随后的事件到2007年年底为止。该分析简要考虑了当前的金融危机与1970年代以来美国以前的金融危机有何相似之处和不同之处。它得出结论认为,当前的危机从根本上说是一种偿付能力危机,因此与先前的金融危机大不相同,它刚刚开始全面展开,并且不可避免地会在2008年及以后进一步恶化,从而导致美国的严重衰退,并在很大程度上在2009年及以后的时间里,世界主要经济体出现实际同步下滑的几率增加。本文的第二部分和第二部分从描述性经验分析转向从理论角度对金融危机的探索。在第二部分中,对当前金融危机的评估首先是对后凯恩斯主义经济学家海曼·明斯基(Hyman Minsky)的初步考虑,尤其是明斯基关于“金融不稳定假说”的关键概念。第二部分探讨了明斯基假设的局限性,并提出了根据当前的金融危机如何发展和扩展它的假设。在第三部分中,本文根据马克思关于沃尔斯关于货币和金融的作用的一些先行但未发展的思想,考虑了马克思关于资本有机构成和利润下降率的类别,开始了第二个理论探索。资本的第二和第三。提出了有关如何扩展马克思主义类别的建议,以更好地反映21世纪资本主义经济中新的商品货币形式的资本,以及如何解释当今金融与现实资本主义经济部门之间的相对利润率不成比例。

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