Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis

摘要

This article is based on AACE International Recommended Practice 57R-09 that defines the integrated analysis of schedule and cost risk to estimate the appropriate level of cost and schedule contingency reserve on projects. The main contribution of this RP is to include the impact of schedule risk on cost risk and the need to hold cost contingency reserves. Additional benefits include the application of the risk drivers method of using risks to drive the Monte Carlo simulation of a resource-loaded CPM schedule. By using the risks, one can prioritize the risks to cost, some of which are commonly thought of as risks to schedule, so that risk mitigation may be conducted in an effective way. The methods presented in the RP are based on integrating the cost estimate with the project schedule by resource-loading and costing the schedule's activities. Using Monte Carlo techniques one can simulate both time and cost simultaneously, permitting calculation of the impacts of schedule risk on cost risk. This article was presented as RISK.1043 at the 2012 AACE International Annual Meeting in San Antonio, Texas. It was ranked as the number three paper out of 99 presentations given and rated at the Annual Meeting.