Integrated Cost/Schedule Risk Analysis for Pre-Concept Alternatives Analysis/Technology Selection

摘要

Quantitative risk analysis is commonly performed for mature projectswith a well-defined baseline to estimate appropriate contingencyreserves. This article demonstrates how the integrated cost/schedulerisk analysis process described in AACE International RecommendedPractice 57R-09, Integrated Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis Using MonteCarlo Simulation of a CPM Model, can be applied to projects on theopposite end of the maturity spectrum, in the pre-concept phase, wherealternatives analysis and technology selection are driving considerations.The application is a company evaluating advanced nuclear reactortechnologies in different sizes/configurations to commercialize a fullsizedmulti-module power plant. The integrated cost/schedule risk resultsprovide insights not available from the best-guess/deterministic cost/schedule estimates and are key to identifying the preferred alternativefrom a cost/schedule perspective. This article describes the process forbuilding a functional cost/schedule model, demonstrating a practicalapplication of RP 57R-09 guidelines for mapping a billion-dollar costestimate into summary-level resources, building a schedule at theappropriate level of detail, adding risks/uncertainties, and interpretingthe results unique to integrated cost/schedule analysis. Finally, this articlepresents a unique approach to applying probabilistic cashflow resultsto develop a recommended project funding plan. This article was firstpresented as RISK.2592 at the 2017 AACE International Annual Meeting.