Book of Giants Giants 2019: The Good Times Roll

摘要

At the end of 2018 a number of economic forecasters checked their tea leaves with wary, troubled eyes. Not that the year hadn't been a strong year; 2018 saw three consecutive quarters where the U.S. GDP grew 3.5 percent. The unemployment rate was at a low not seen in 50 years. But still, almost everywhere an analyst turned for data there was reason to predict gloom (if not doom). Housing sales, which had never quite recovered from the Great Recession (see Dale Stroud's Forum piece in this issue, starting on page 18), took a dip. So did auto sales (both, in part, due to the Federal Reserve raising interest rates). In fact, at the end of November 2018, GM had to shutter five factories, cutting 14,000 jobs. Consumer confidence continued the steady decline it had been on since about June of 2018. On the international stage there were worries about Brexit and its knock-on effects for the North American economy. There was the ongoing trade war with China, the effects of which continue to bite. (A recent economic report from NPR estimates that for every job preserved or created by the Trump administra- tion's policies, tariffs have cost the American economy $900,000-about thirteen times the average salary of one of those workers.) In December of 2018 the International Monetary Fund issued a warning that most governments around the world were so saddled with debt that they might be unable to cope with a second Great Recession.