GERMANY

摘要

The 0.5% (q-o-q) contraction in Q2 GDP signalled an end to German economic resilience in the face of current global headwinds. Both domestic and external demand faltered, with household consumption, investment and exports all declining in q-o-q terms. The fall came as payback following a strong 1.3% (q-o-q) Q1 outturn, leaving the q-o-q average for the first two quarters at a fairly unremarkable 0.4%. The Q1 expansion was supported by exports which have driven growth over the past two years, but the strong euro and slowing global growth have since eroded external demand. Moreover, this has spilled over into Q3, with the consensus estimating just 0.1% (q-o-q) GDP growth in the current quarter (see page 3).