SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE CONSENSUS

摘要

In the United States (page 4), GDP growth forecasts for 2008 have edged down this month amid increased uncertainty over US activity. The economy is clearly slowing, according to latest data releases, with the downward trend in industry picking up pace (December's forward-looking ISM survey for manufacturing showed production, new orders and employment in the sector on a declining bent). Industrial output forecasts have consequently tumbled for the third consecutive month. Concerns are growing over a possible recession, prompting Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to stress that the central bank will act preemptively in order to support growth. A 50 basis-point rate cut is expected at the end of this month (see front page). Consumers, meanwhile, are being adversely affected by wavering employment fundamentals and resurgent energy and food costs. Inflation expectations for this year have jumped as a result.