UNITED STATES

摘要

The preliminary national accounts for Q1 showed a modest upward revision in GDP growth to 0.9% (q-o-q annualized) from 0.6% in last month's "advance" release. At first glance, the report suggests that the economy may have averted recession. Indeed, our panel's 2008 GDP forecast has even been upgraded to 1.5% this month. Many observers, though, are not convinced that the worst has passed: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, for example, suggested that Q2 activity was "likely to be weak" (see page 3). Moreover, downside risks to the near-term outlook appear to be gaining momentum. Residential investment contracted by its largest annualized rate of decrease since the start of the housing downturn and, going into the second quarter, personal spending is unlikely to support the sector.