SIGNIFICANT CHANGES INTHE CONSENSUS

摘要

In Italy (page 14), forecasts for GDP growth have been downgraded again this month as a slew of economic data points to weakening conditions and sentiment. While the fourth quarter national accounts have not yet been released, a number of economists expect GDP to have contracted over the quarter given the especially poor performance of the industrial sector during the October-December period. Forecasts for industrial production have been duly slashed over recent surveys, as illustrated by the chart on the right. With a meagre 0.3% increase expected from industry and subdued domestic demand, GDP growth of only 0.8% is anticipated in 2008. Consumer confidence is also being dented by the increasing cost of food and energy which lifted the overall inflation index to 2.9% (y-o-y) in February, leading to our panel's upgrading of its consumer price inflation forecasts for 2008.