GERMANY

摘要

Consumer Spending Forecasts Downgraded Again The once relatively strong outlook for private consumption has been undermined by weakening domestic and global economic prospects, leading to a further reduction - for the fourth consecutive survey - in the 2008 consensus forecast. Our panel now predicts a 1.4% rise in consumption this year, compared with 1.9% three months ago. While this is an improvement on the 0.3% contraction experienced in 2007, earlier predictions that consumer spending would take over from exports and industry as the leading driver of economic activity now appear unlikely to come to fruition. To be sure, sustained and significant declines in unemployment, together with expectations of accelerating wage growth, will help to prop up consumers' disposable incomes.