REAL INTEREST RATES

摘要

As in our previous analyses on this subject, we have computed two separate formulations of real long-term interest rates. The first calculates real (or inflation-adjusted) yields by deflating nominal yields on benchmark 10-year government bonds using predictions for inflation in 2009. The second, more accurately, uses our panels' forecasts for average inflation over the next lOyears, drawn partly from our latest survey and partly from our Octobersurvey of long-term forecasts, roughly equivalent to the remaining life of the debt instruments in question.