United Kingdom

摘要

The UK national accounts release confirmed the initially-reported 1.5% (q-o-q) contraction in GDP in Q4, as household consumption shrank by 0.7% and investment fell by 2.3%. Our panel predicts that Q4 2008 may well have been the deepest q-o-q contraction of the recession (see page 28) but GDP is still expected to fall sharply in y-o-y terms this year. Business expansion plans have been hit by credit restrictions and slumping demand, with confidence at extremely low levels. The manufacturing sector has been especially impacted, with output having fallen by over 10% in December from its October 2007 peak. Meanwhile, consumer confidence is also weak, due to fears over job security as unemployment rose to 3.8% in January (up 1.4% from a year earlier) and job vacancies fell to a record low in February. Continued falls in house prices, which reached 17.6% (y-o-y) in February (according to Nationwide), and soaring repossessions did little to bolster sentiment. This has caused households to rein in spending, especially on big-ticket purchases, and may result in a rise in precautionary saving. On a positive note, with global trade volumes falling and sterling having depreciated significantly, imports have fallen faster than exports, causing external trade to provide some support in Q4.