Switzerland

摘要

1. The Swiss economy likely experienced a sharp contraction in Q4, with the purchasing managers' index for manufacturing reaching a record low in November and remaining low in December. Output also recorded a huge drop as exports collapsed in November, with external demand hit by the global recession. This will have a significant effect on GDP in the small, open Swiss economy, our panel expecting a contraction of 0.7%. 2. Inflation dropped significantly in November, to 1.5% (y-o-y) as global commodity prices eased. Consequently, our panel's 2009 inflation forecast has halved this month.