Italy

摘要

The Italian economy is still being plagued by disappointing data releases, providing a gloomy start to 2009. After the economy likely shrank in 2008, our panel expects a contraction of 1.6% in GDP this year, before a modest recovery in 2010, with growth of just 0.5%. Confidence in the economy continued on its downward trend in December amid consumer concerns over the labour market and deteriorating economic conditions. Meanwhile, business confidence hit an all-time low, with the outlook for export orders proving especially weak. Surprisingly, the purchasing manager's index for manufacturing actually rose slightly in December, but the level remains low and is firmly consistent with a sharp contraction in the sector. Indeed, manufacturing orders plummeted for the third month in a row in October, falling by 5.4% (m-o-m) to a level which was 12.2% below a year earlier. Output also declined, confirming the severe weakness in industrial activity.