ITALY

摘要

The Italian economy continues to struggle. Industrial production fell by 2.3% (m-o-m) and 12.3% (y-o-y) in November while manufacturing orders plunged by 6.3% and 26.2%, respectively, marking a fourth consecutive monthly drop as both domestic and international orders plummeted. The purchasing managers' index for manufacturing rose slightly for a second consecutive month in January but is still at a level which indicates a sharp contraction. This highlights the severe weakness in industrial activity, with our panel expecting it to shrink by 5.6% this year before only just returning to growth of 0.5% in 2010. Accordingly, business confidence fell to a new record low in January, as uncertainty over the size and direction of the Italian stimulus package has prevented stabilisation in business sentiment. However, consumer confidence rose slightly in January and the purchasing managers' index for retail sales also increased, but both remain well below their long-term averages.