UNITED STATES

摘要

Ever since the Q1 and Q2 national accounts confirmed the protracted weakness in US activity, the GDP outlook has worsened markedly. Some commentators have even raised the possibility of a double-dip recession. So far, latest data suggest that the economy does not appearto be in correction mode: the final release of Q2 GDP was revised back up to 1.3% annualized growth after an initial downside surprise of 1.0%. This is still weak compared with growth prior to 2007, though. Moreover, the Federal Reserve has warned of a more serious retrenchment. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke indicated that the US economy is "close to faltering," a situation not helped by the Euro area debt crisis which has rocked the world financial markets. The fault does not lie solely with external indicators, however. US households and businesses are undergoing a painful deleveraging process and the government can do little to help, mired as it is in its own sizeable debt concerns. Indeed, Bernanke pointed to political stalemate as one factor behind the dip in consumer confidence. Unsatisfactory job market fundamentals are another reason behind the weakness in personal spending. The consensus forecasts for201 2 GDP and consumption have been downgraded this month as a result.