FRANCE

摘要

Q1 GDP expanded by 1.0% (q-o-q), its fastest pace of growth since Q2 2006. This brought the year-on-year rate up from 1.4% in Q4 2010 to 2.2%. The economy was boosted by both business investment and industrial production. However, data going into the current quarter point to a noticeable slowdown in activity, prompting the Banque de France to cut its GDP forecast for Q2 from 0.5% (q-o-q) to 0.4%. The bank was influenced by a drop in industrial and services sentiment in May though, other indices (like the PMIs) remain at high levels. Despite manufacturing orders dipping by 0.7% (m-o-m) in March and the trade deficit widening on the back of yet anotherglobalsoftpatch,ourpanel's2011 GDP, investment and production expectations have soared, partly due to upwardly revised historical data for investment.