UNITED STATES

摘要

The second release of the Q2 national accounts showed GDP grew by 1.7% (q-o-q annualized), up from the 1.5% figure in the advance report. However, after a storming 4.1% pace in Q4 2011, it is clear that GDP growth in the first half of 2012 has been decidedly lacklustre. While the economy is not sinking fast, it is expanding at too slow a pace to translate into significant job gains. Moreover, the Q2 report suggests an even softer second half to the year and highly uncertain 2013. Net exports contributed to growth and domestic final sales held up well, but business spending was revised down slightly. Firms are focusing on stockbuilding instead of expanding production in the face of relatively modest demand - inventories registered another solid gain in Q2 while August's ISM survey of manufacturing recorded a third straight month of contraction in this sector. Production expectations remain solid, however, as do those for investment.