CONSENSUS FORECAS:WORLD ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

摘要

Regional totals, as well as the grand total for GDP growth and inflation, are weighted averages calculated using 2010 GDP weights, converted at average 2010 exchange rates. Current account forecasts given in national currencies on pages 7-24 have been converted using consensus exchange rate forecasts for the purposes of comparison.~1 USA and Canada. ~2 The Euro zone aggregate is taken from our panel's latest forecasts (pages 18-19). The Euro zone current account data and forecasts are based on extra-euro zone data, i.e., they are compiled from an aggregate of the Euro zone member states' transactions only with nonresidents of the Euro zone. The European Union data includes the Euro zone countries listed on page 18 plus Denmark, Sweden and the United Kingdom, as well as May 2004 entrants the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, plus Romania and Bulgaria who entered in January 2007 (data taken from Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts). Western Europe comprises the Euro zone plus Denmark, Sweden and the United Kingdom, along with Norway and Switzerland. ~3 Survey results for Japan plus fifteen other countries taken from Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts. ~4 Twenty-seven countries, including eleven European Union countries taken from the latest issue of Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts. ~5Eighteen countries taken from the latest issue of Latin American Consensus Forecasts (Inflation figures are on a December/December basis).~6 Egypt, Israel, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and South Africa. ~7 The Eastern Europe and Latin American components of the World Total are taken from the prior month's surveys.