SIGNIFICANT CHANGES INTHE LONG-TERM CONSENSUS

摘要

This month, we explore Significant Changes in Long-Term Forecast Trends for GDP and Inflation for the US, Japan, Germany, France, the UK, Italy and Canada. Long-term projections for the 6-10 year aggregate period (in this case 2018-2022) are contrasted with those long-term aggregates published all the way back to April 1996. It is this rolling 6-10 yeartrendline average which we show in the charts below. The 6-10-year trend averages shown in the charts, right and below, are a measure of changes in potential growth and inflation expectations. This construct has two problems, however. One is that the 6-10 year horizon is a moving target shifting forward one year, each year. The other is that the number of panellists responding to our long-term surveys is smaller and therefore less representative than the numbers responding to our one and two-year surveys on pages 4-24.