ITALY

摘要

Centre-left leader Pier Luigi Bersani has failed in his recent attempt to form a governing coalition following February's inconclusive parliamentary elections. Italian President Giorgio Napolitano will now explore other routes out of the political impasse as indicators suggest that the recession could yet deepen further. The breakdown of the Q4 2012 national accounts confirmed a 0.9% (q-o-q) contraction in GDP and showed household consumption and gross fixed investment slumping by 0.7% and 1.2%, respectively. Consumer spending has been hampered by poor labour market fundamentals. January saw a 3.0% (y-o-y) fall in retail sales, after an upwardly revised 3.4% fall in December. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, edged down from 11.7% to 11.6% in February as firms seemed to expect some moderation in austerity after the election. However, joblessness remains near record-high levels and the youth unemployment rate stood at a massive 37.8% in February. Manufacturing accounts for almost one-fifth of Italian GDP and recovery prospects dimmed further as the PMI for the sector fell to a seven-month low of 44.5 in March. Furthermore, calendar-adjusted construction output dived by 12.0% (y-o-y) in January. The consensus forecast for 2013 industrial production has been reduced to -2.8% this month.