UNITED STATES

摘要

Global Stock Sell-Off Creates Uncertainty in US Outlook The second release of Q2 GDP helped to lift our panel's 2015 growth expectations this month. Instead of a 2.3% (q-o-q annualized) pace as reported at the end of July, GDP growth was revised up to 3.7%. This compared even more favourably with the previous quarter's very muted 0.6% outturn, the result mainly of bad winter weather and the West Coast docks dispute. Q2 activity was revised up on the back of stronger-than-expected business inventories, from an already-robust US$110.0bn to US$121.1bn. Business investment was also upgraded noticeably, from negative -0.6% annualized territory in the advance report to a positive +3.2% reading. Corporate profits helped to shore up capital expenditure, rising by 9.8% on an annualized basis - following a 21.1% contraction in Q1 - and despite a 68.3% collapse in spending on mine exploration (which underscores theongoing downturn in the energy sector on the back of weak commodity prices). Personal consumption growth in Q2 was upgraded from 2.9% to 3.1 %, supported by an upbeat job market, cheaper gasoline and the recovery in house values. However, Q2 activity has also been boosted by special factors, one of which is payback after a poor showing in Q1. Another is the contribution from inventories which will be difficult to sustain.