JAPAN

摘要

Confidence in Shinzo Abe's three-pronged 'Abenomics' policy suffered a further blow last month when credit rating agency Standard & Poor's lowered its sovereign credit rating for Japan from AA- to A+. Following a -0.3% (q-o-q) contraction in GDP in Q2, some are suggesting that the country may have entered another technical recession in Q3. Industrial production contracted by 0.5% (m-o-m) in August following -0.8% decline in July. Meanwhile, core machinery orders fell by a sizeable -5.7% (m-o-m) during the same month, with contractions in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing orders. Despite stronger corporate profits, companies continue to sit on capital instead of spend, reflecting ongoing uncertainty over the outlook and, possibly, current government policies which have had difficulty supporting activity since the April 2014 sales tax hike. The Bank of Japan's Tankan survey showed sentiment amongst large and small firms falling back, although surprisingly, in terms of capex and profits plans, firms upgraded their assessment for the current fiscal year. On the upside, retail and real spending over the summer were relatively upbeat, which could indicate a positive contribution from consumption to Q3 GDP.