EURO ZONE

摘要

The European Commission's (EC) Autumn 2015 forecast (see table, left) confirmed many observers' view that the recovery is ongoing. The EC predicts 1.6% growth for this year and 1.8% next amidst a pronounced emerging-market and trade slowdown. This has hit our industrial outlook. On the upside, the EC pointed out that falling oil prices are helping to bring down headline HICP (it was flat y-o-y in October). Accommodative monetary policy and a competitive euro have also helped. Consumption is supported by gradually ebbing unemployment, which hit 10.8% in September compared with 11.5% one year previously. Retail volumes may have fallen -0.1 % (m-o-m) in September but y-o-y they grew 2.9%. Our panel's consumption forecast is unchanged.