JAPAN

摘要

Despite a recent pick up in manufacturing activity, demonstrated by last month's PMI reading of 52.4, the outlook for the economy is trending downward (see chart below). September industrial production fell by 0.8% (y-o-y) following a -0.4% dip in August, whilst consumption data was mixed, with retail sales up by 0.7% (m-o-m) and by 1.8% (q-o-q) for Q3 as a whole. However, household spending declined by -1.3% (m-o-m) and -0.4% (y-o-y). Prime Minister Abe has reiterated his desire to expand output by one-fifth over the next five years, increasing Japanese GDP to above ¥600tn. Mr. Abe hopes to generate growth in the private sector and has called for measures to be implemented before the end of the month. Ahead of the Q3 GDP release (on November 15), our panel remains less than optimistic about Japan's GDP prospects, with the consensus expecting growth of 0.6% for 2015, while the forecast for next year is at 1.3%.