GERMANY

摘要

A continuing downtrend in industry, along with growing threats from softer global trade, suggests that Q3 GDP will be sluggish. The government lowered its 2015 GDP forecast to 1.7% last month, attributing the downgrade to gloomier prospects in China where a slowing economy is depressing demand for exports. The usually powerful industrial sector suffered another loss of momentum in September, sliding by -1.1% (m-o-m) after a revised -0.6% drop in August. Factory orders also faltered in September, shrinking by -1.7% (m-o-m), a third straight month of decline. The flow of goods to the Euro area, Germany's largest export market, slumped by 6.7% (m-o-m) amid lowerdemand for capital goods. Still, Euro bloc orders rose sharply in the first nine months of the year. Volkswagen, one of Germany's biggest employers, is facing a deepening crisis, though. It emerged that carbon dioxide emissions may potentially be affecting a higher-than-initially-thought 800,000 vehicles. German business optimism, although resilient in October, could falterthis month, especially with the export outlook in general starting to drag.