ITALY

摘要

In its latest spring forecast, the European Commission suggested that the external climate will provide the main impetus for activity, and the Q1 GDP estimate of 0.3% (q-o-q) implies a marginally improving outlook. The weakened euro is supporting export competitiveness, and exports to non-EU countries jumped by 6.1 % (y-o-y) in Q1. Industrial production has picked up somewhat: March's 0.4% (m-o-m) rise follows February's 0.6% advance after a -0.7% slump in January. The manufacturing PMI was 53.8 in April, its highest reading for a year. The expansion was driven by increases in output and new orders, whilst employment is on an upward bent. So far, higher confidence and stronger PMI news have failed to filter into the economy. Consumer spending looks unlikely to gain much near-term momentum with households negatively influenced by job market uncertainty, and the unemployment rate climbed to 13% in March. The Jobs Act may start to have a positive effect on employment opportunities, and commentators hope that it will contribute to an influx of foreign capital. Investment remains weak but may be aided by better credit conditions and persistently low interest rates. Consumer prices, which were steady at -0.1% in April, should support firms through low energy prices.