CANADA

摘要

Canada may have headed into contractionary territory in Q2. After a -0.1 % (q-o-q) outturn in Q1, the decline did not abate in April. GDP fell by 0.1% (m-o-m) following a 0.2% drop in March. The goods-producing sector declined by 0.8% which a +0.3% increase in services output failed to offset. Specifically, mining, quarrying, oil & gas extraction tumbled for a sixth consecutive month, by -2.6% while the energy sector fell by 1.6%. The sharp fall in world oil prices over the past year has had a particularly detrimental effect on Canada's economy and especially its resource sector. Despite a weaker Canadian dollar against its US counterpart, the value of energy exports has dwindled. The externally-oriented manufacturing industry has also been in the doldrums, falling by 0.2% (m-o-m) in April after a 0.1% drop in March and dramatic 1.5% contraction in February (impacted in part by adverse winter weather). Moreover, manufacturing sales fell by 2.1% (m-o-m) in April while new orders - an indicator of future sales -dropped by a worrying 5.6%. Once again, lower sales of petroleum and coal were a factor, although a 17.8% monthly plunge in aerospace products was the main culprit. It is of little surprise, therefore, that the trade deficit widened to C$3.3bn in April, its second highest shortfall thus far, while the trade surplus with the US narrowed. Our panel's GDP and production forecasts have been downgraded again.