ITALY

摘要

The sense of optimism in the recovery following Q1 's 0.3% (q-o-q) expansion in economic growth has been softened by the ongoing Greek crisis. The spread between German and Italian 10-year bonds remains modest, though, suggesting that a potential Greek bailout deal has helped mitigate earlier Euro area jitters. However, support for anti-euro parties has been a growing story in several member states including Italy. Years of economic stagnation, high youth unemployment and sliding standards of living have taken their toll, and recent local elections and polls indicate a decline in Prime Minister Renzi's popularity. Nevertheless, the economy is tentatively moving in a positive direction, and this month the IMF encouraged the government to strive for deeper reforms to continue to tackle weak productivity, high unemployment and elevated public debt. The public budget deficit narrowed in Q1 to 5.6% of GDP from 6% a year earlier. The Italian government anticipates a 2015 deficit of 2.6% of GDP which would keep it inside the European Union's ceiling of 3%. Our panel's €-45.9bn forecast for 2015 suggests a close -2.8% of GDP.