FRANCE

摘要

In spite of muted demand conditions, January's terrorist attacks and general pessimism, data at the end of last year presented a glimmer of light. December was a positive month for consumer activity. Following a 0.4% (m-o-m) fall in October and November's modest 0.2% rebound, consumption of goods accelerated by a notable 1.5% at the end of 2014. The rise was primarily due to an unexpected 6.9% jump in energy spending; however, given the current environment for oil prices, energy consumption in Q4 as a whole actually declined by 2.3% (q-o-q) compared with Q3's 1.2% advance. Overall goods consumption only managed a+0.1% quarterly gain in Q4, and despite consumer sentiment seemingly stable in January, the retail sector PMI for the same month deteriorated further. The hope is that falling fuel costs will provide some boost to consumers. Still, with activity stagnant and jobs an ongoing worry, households incomes remain constrained. Our panel's 2015 GDP forecast is unchanged this month but consumption has edged up to 1.1%.