TRENDS IN PRODUCTIVITY AND WAGES

摘要

In addition to their regular forecasts, this month we asked for our panellists' projections for total employment growth and wage or employment costs between now and 2027, along with real and nominal GDP growth forecasts over the same period. Using indices derived from these projections, we have calculated forecasts for changes to broad measures of productivity growth (real and nominal GDP per employee) and an indicator of unit wage costs (calculated by dividing the employment cost indices by the indices of real GDP per employee). Although some of the wage definitions used are imperfect measures for total compensation per employee, our calculated indices do provide an indication of future trends in unit wage costs. Figures in normal typeare official data, with consensus forecasts-based on theaverages of ourpanels'forecasts-shown in blue italics.