EURO ZONE

摘要

Ahead of the first release of Q2 GDP on August 14 (after our survey deadline), the industrial production outlook has faltered on the back of weak data. After advanci ng by 0.1 % (m-o-m) in April (payback for a-0.5% showing in March), industry contracted by -0.2% in May and -0.4% in June. The June outturn in particular was lower than expected as activity in Germany, France and Italy all fell sharply. The largest drop came from the production of durables (which fell by 2% over the month), although energy recovered. Moreover, German industrial orders in Q2 posted their highest increase since 2011, suggesting that the domestic sector should pick up steam. Uncertainty over Chinese demand adds a note of caution over the export-oriented outlook.