OIL PRICES

摘要

Oil Prices Close to US$50 But Oversupply Still an Issue Brent and West Texas Intermediate continue to trade within US$40-50 per barrel for a sixth straight month. There is little sign of a sizeable pick-up in expectations: our panel sees Brent hitting US$47.8 at end-December and US$52.7 by this time next year. Despite a volatile economic and geopolitical outlook, as well as signs of stronger oil demand, an oversupplied market is buffering against further price rises. OPEC published its monthly oil market report on September 12 which indicated that non-cartel production would expand in 2017 to 56.25mn barrels per day, due to the slower-than-projected decline in US shale output, stronger production in Norway, and an early start-up of a Kazakh oil field. In addition, Russia and OPEC-members Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran continue to produce at sizeable levels.