GERMANY

摘要

Strong trade and industrial production in August eased concerns over Q3 prospects after signs of weakness in July. Following solid GDP growth of 0.7% (q-o-q) and 0.4% (q-o-q) in Q1 and Q2, respectively, the Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel is confident that growth in 2016 and 2017 will be closely comparable to last year's 1.7%. Our panel, however, is predicting much softer 1.3% growth in 2017. July's 1.5% (m-o-m) decline in production output was the biggest fall in almost two years, but a 2.5% resurgence in August featured a robust improvement in investment goods output. Moreover, manufacturing orders also rose in August by 1 % (m-o-m), as demand rose in the Euro area. Orders from outside the bloc dropped by 2.8% (m-o-m), though. July's 10% (y-o-y) fall in goods exports raised doubts over the external outlook, but a robust 9.8% rebound followed in August. Exporters may still be concerned by the perceived softness in the US economy, given its position as Germany's top export market. A disappointing services PMI indicator in September indicated faltering activity, with the Q3 average at its worst pace in over three years. In contrast, the manufacturing PMI ended Q3 on a much firmer note, while the construction PMI struck a 4-month high as building companies added to their workforces' and increased buying activity.