UNITED KINGDOM

摘要

An upward revision to Q2 GDP from 0.6% (q-o-q) to 0.7% implied a relatively solid economic performance in the run-up to the EU referendum, supported by decent growth in services and manufacturing. The services sector (making up almost four-fifths of the economy) also rose by 0.4% (m-o-m) and 2.9% (y-o-y) in July, bolstering the outlook after the Brexit vote. In a recent report, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) stated that the referendum had not yet had any major effect on the economy. The better-than-expected start to Q3 has supported an uptick in the 2016 G DP consensus forecast, from 1.7% to 1.9%. The IMF (see table) also raised its 2016 forecast this month. However, it cut its 2017 GDP estimate to 1.1% (from 1.3%), citing a raft of uncertainty as the UK starts Brexit negotiation talks. Some of this initial good news could well be a delayed reaction to the reality of a looming EU exit as it slowly sinks in for the public, policymakers and the markets.