FRANCE

摘要

The second Q4 GDP release confirmed that the quarter advanced positively, all things considered. The Paris attacks hit sentiment while mild weather held back energy spending; still, GDP growth gained 0.3% (q-o-q) on Q3's advance of the same magnitude. In y-o-y terms, the economy accelerated from 1.1% in Q2 and Q3 to 1.4%. Given that activity gains between 2012 and 2014 averaged a negligible 0.4%, a 1.1 % outturn for 2015 as a whole was decent news. Household consumption subtracted from activity, declining by -0.2% (q-o-q) in Q4 following a 0.5% surge in Q3, for reasons outlined above. However, business investment jumped by 1.3% over the quarter, on the back of construction spending. Going into 2016, consumption of goods recorded a 1.0% (m-o-m) jump in December and a 0.6% gain in January, solidifying the outlookfor household consumption in Q1 2016 (see quarterlies on page 28). January benefited from spending on clothes and energy as a result of cold weather. There were rises in other categories, though, suggesting that the extended fall in oil prices may be helping to boost purchasing power. Still, forward-looking PMIs for manufacturing and services activity in February paint a shaky picture, with activity in services slipping into contractionary territory. The environment shows renewed uncertainty, casting doubt over 2016 GDP, the consensus for which has faltered this month.