FRANCE

摘要

The second release of the Q1 national accounts saw an upward revision to the GDP figure from 0.5% (q-o-q) growth in the flash estimate to 0.6%. This was a pickup from the 0.4% rate recorded in the final three months of last year. In y-o-y terms, the economy maintained its +1.4% growth rate from Q4, despite subtractions to GDP from net trade and inventories. Growth was helped by a particularly upbeat showing from domestic demand. Household consumption jumped from zero growth in Q4 to 1.0% (q-o-q) in Q1 while business investment accelerated from an already-robust 1.9% (q-o-q) showing at the end of last year to 2.4% which helped to bring the y-o-y rate up from 4.1% to 5.3%. Companies have been supported by a €40bn tax break this year while consumers have benefited from the cheap euro and lower fuel costs freeing up disposable incomes. Low interest rates have helped both households and corporates. There are some concerns on the horizon, however, with the base-year effect from lower oil prices expected to fade. Moreover, unions have launched another round of strikes and protests over a contentious labour bill which aims to reform the job market and increase flexibility. Already the Banquede France predicts a slowdown in GDP growth for Q2 (a view also illustrated in our panel's q-o-q estimates on page 28). Despite this, our panel's forecasts for GDP, consumption and investment have seen an uptick this month.