JAPAN

摘要

Following the encouraging Q3 national accounts release at the beginning of last month, which revealed a 1.7% (y-o-y) rise in GDP, the Japanese economy has been subsequently hit with a spate of negative data heading into the new year. Latest figures show that the unemployment rate edged up to 3.3% in November after sliding to a twenty-year low of 3.1 % in October. This has been accompanied by weak private consumption and factory output data for the same month, with the economy experiencing a 2.5% (m-o-m) decline in retail sales and a 1.0% (m-o-m) fall in industrial production. Looking ahead, the cabinet has approved an additional ¥3.3tn of stimulus for the current fiscal year with a view to aiding elderly citizens and helping farmers likely to be negatively affected by the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal. However, despite this boost, the government is presently facing stern resistance to its calls for wage increases from leading business lobbies. Our panel is predicting a rise in nominal total cash earnings of around 1.3% this year.