CANADA

摘要

After a 0.5% (m-o-m) decline in September and flat growth in October, November saw a +0.3% rebound in output-based GDP. Both services and goods production increased, by +0.2% and 0.4%, respectively. Services were buoyed by a 1.3% turnaround in wholesale and 1.2% surge in retail trade. On the production front, utilities rebounded by 1.0% while mining, quarrying, oil & gas extraction shook off maintenance shutdowns and production cutbacks of the previous few months to post a 0.6% advance. However, the retrenchment in the commodity markets continues to weigh heavily on the economy; the precipitous fall in oil and gas prices has made high-cost extraction of oil cost-ineffective, hence sweeping cutbacks in production, staffing and investment. In value terms, export receipts are also badly hit. 2015 imports rose by 4.4% while exports fell by 0.9%, moving the merchandise trade balance from a C$+4.8bn surplus in 2014 to a C$-23.3bn deficit in 2015. However, in volume terms, real exports actually rose faster than imports. The Bank of Canada has cuts its 2015 GDP forecast from 2% to 1.4%. Despite the bank keeping its key rate unchanged at its January policy meeting, some observers expect a further cut, to 0.25% in orderto support activity, especially with monthly headline and core prices declining in November and December.